Calling Haileys Bluff

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Yesterday October 7 , the Biebers took to Instagram to share some of their favorite pictures from the romantic and yes, star-studded evening. Along with a sweet picture of the bride and groom sharing a kiss at Palmetto Bluff, their dreamy South Carolina wedding venue, Hailey wrote, "last Monday was the most special day of my life. Knowing that fans would want a closer look at her wedding ensemble, Hailey also posted a solo shot showing off her Off-White gown designed by none other than Virgil Abloh. Hailey shared one last wedding post to her Instagram feed, which included an intimate photo of the pair from their reception, as well as an up-close image of their wedding bling.

If Worm does bluff in this situation, he is giving Mike 2-to-1 pot odds to call with his two pair 10's and 2's.

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Where s is equal to the percentage of the pot that Worm is bluff betting with and x is equal to the percentage of busted draws Worm should be bluffing with to bluff optimally. Assuming four trials , Worm has the nuts two times, and has a busted draw two times. Under the circumstances of this example: Worm will bet his nut hand two times, for every one time he bluffs against Mike's hand assuming Mike's hand would lose to the nuts and beat a bluff.

This means that if he called all three bets Mike would win one time, and lose two times, and would break even against 2-to-1 pot odds.

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This also means that Worm's odds against bluffing is also 2-to-1 since he will value bet twice, and bluff once. If the second hand of the watch is between 1 and 30 seconds, Worm will check his hand down not bluff.


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If the second hand of the watch is between 31 and 60 seconds, Worm will bluff his hand. Worm looks down at his watch, and the second hand is at 45 seconds, so Worm decides to bluff. Mike folds his two pair saying, "the way you've been betting your hand, I don't think my two pair on the board will hold up against your hand. In real game situations, this is not usually the case.


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The purpose of optimal bluffing frequencies is to make the opponent mathematically indifferent between calling and folding. Optimal bluffing frequencies are based upon game theory and the Nash Equilibrium , and assist the player using these strategies to become unexploitable. By bluffing in optimal frequencies, you will typically end up breaking even on your bluffs in other words, optimal bluffing frequencies are not meant to generate positive expected value from the bluffs alone. Rather, optimal bluffing frequencies allow you to gain more value from your value bets, because your opponent is indifferent between calling or folding when you bet regardless of whether it's a value bet or a bluff bet.

Although bluffing is most often considered a poker term, similar tactics are useful in other games as well. In these situations, a player makes a play that shouldn't be profitable unless an opponent misjudges it as being made from a position capable of justifying it.

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Since a successful bluff requires deceiving one's opponent, it occurs only in games where the players conceal information from each other. In games like chess and backgammon where both players can see the same board, they should simply make the best legal move available. Examples include:.

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